Regardless of the article, using the term “unexpected” is kind of naive at this point.
I suppose it’s unexpected because Putin would rather bomb his own citizens than allow a change of status quo.
Aw shit here we go again
As they mention in the article they anticipated a much slower collapse and likely prepared for that. But at the rate it’s currently going, it’s quite astounding. The fragmentation and internal strife in Russia are certainly not over.
I did read one article that made a reference to this more being an “end of the beginning” rather than the “beginning of the end”. Which I agree with. It hasn’t collapsed the federation overnight, but it’s certainly weakened it a hell of a lot.
Living in Russia, I have mixed feelings about this slow controlled collapse TBF.
For Russia itself, maybe things being over after a couple of months (or years) of civil war starting in 1999 would be better.
But for everybody else, of course, there are bigger risks associated with that. Not really something nuclear even, just economically less pleasant.
Are you in Russia right now? How are things over there?
I really hate reportage like this. Every government, even seemingly incompetent ones like the current crop in the UK, have hundreds or thousands of contingency plans for things of wildly varying likelihood. This is just one of those things.
This is just as informative as those articles that say eating sugar triggers the same receptors as cocaine. Yes it’s true, but there aren’t that many reward mechanisms in the brain, so a lot of shit hits those same receptors.
It’s data and it’s true, but it’s not useful information.
It’s like saying the police is preparing for thieves robbing the bank or the fire department preparing for a wildfire. It’s part of their job and it would be stranger not to have a contingency plan.
Consider the source. Pretty sure this is propaganda.
My body is ready
If you’re preparing for it, is it really that “unexpected”…?
I sincerely do not understand why…
Maybe it’s your attitude and insulting manner? None of your arguments required your comments about “liberals”. Given those, it’s disingenuous to attribute the downvotes to your “facts”.
I know mexico is really worried…so they drink tequila and move on.
so they drink tequila and move on
based
Honestly I doubt that Putin will fall from power that easily. He seems to take nots of precautions and he has lots of friends
Even if there’s no coup/revolution/he doesn’t get assassinated/etc.
He’s 70, and very possibly not in the best health. Statistically it wouldn’t be very surprising if he dropped dead of natural causes at any moment. Technically he’s already a small anomaly of a Russian male just because he has lived as long as he has since their average life expectancy is currently something like 65 (which is admittedly skewed very young by a whole lot of stuff like drinking, drug use, suicide, and being shipped off to Ukraine) And even if he beats all odds and lives another 30 years it still shouldn’t be unexpected for him to just decide to step down and retire at some point. Shit, if I had a fraction of the money and assets he has, I’d have called it quits a long time ago and disappeared from the public view.
And when he goes, no matter how he goes, there’s going to be a power vacuum that needs to be filled and a whole lot of assholes jockeying for position. I won’t pretend to know how that will go, maybe there will be all-out civil war, maybe just a handful of the right people will fall out of windows or drink polonium tea or just get disappeared, maybe there will be a major economic collapse and a rise in crime rates, maybe everything will just be hunky-dory and it really was just Putin holding everything back and Russia will enter a new age of enlightenment (it will probably not be that last one)
Am I missing something or did nothing in the article match the title?
I thought it was; maybe the link you got was to the front page, or something? The article was mostly about how Prigozhin’s attempted coup (or whatever it was) surprised Western leaders, and a bunch of speculation about how the West is scrambling to prepare contingemcy plans. So the one I read seemed to match.
However, I think it was a fluff article, with little substance. Prigozhin has been agitating for weeks, and I seriously doubt MI6 (or the CIA) was surprised by his actions. Or that nobody has a contingency plan for chaos in Russia. Putin’s a dictator, and when dictators die, it’s rarely a peaceful transition of power.
“Some people in UK government maybe consider thinking about doing something because something happened”. Much better title.
It’s Pravda, literally the propaganda arm of the Ukrainian Government.
After the events that just strengthened it? Absurd. Anything to avoid actually feeding people, addressing the 33% of children currently in poverty or the constantly declining living standards we have I suppose.
EDIT: God this place has gone south since all the redditors came over.
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When a coup fails, it strengthens the existing state. It has told everyone that might rebel that there is too much support in the existing state for it to succeed. See Erdogan doing it intentionally in Turkey to strengthen and consolidate his power if you want another example of this.
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I live in the UK. This is absolutely a fucking waste of our time and energy. Nobody gives a damn about this when a third of children in the country live in poverty and cost of living is through the roof. It is entirely a distraction because Brexit, austerity and successive neoliberal governments have systematically gutted the country. Anything to distract from the fact half the country keeps going on strike or actually paying people more.
But did the coup really fail? Prigozhin simply called it off after !another! country negotiated a solution. The coup in Turkey failed because of, seemingly, Erdogan being too powerful and the people loving him. In Russia it failed because of Lukashenko intervening and Prigozhin calling it off. Putin does not look strong currently.
Of course he called it off lmao. He had NO SUPPORT. He was totally isolated.
Compare this to the gang of eight when the communists attempted but failed a coup and you’ll see what a real powerful coup attempt looks like. That failed.
Look at who supported and took part in that and compare it to Prigozhin’s isolated attempt with absolutely no support, no allies, nothing, while every single other political and military force in the country backed the state.
Prigo grossly overestimated his position. He thought he would get supporters once it was launched, he got absolutely nothing and he backed out at the earliest opportunity with a guarantee of his life being protected in Belarus. This was accepted by state because the alternative would have been a disaster for Russia with thousands of dead in a battle for Rostov and defence of the outskirts of Moscow.
I mean, I agree with your points here. Honestly, I’m wondering why he started in the first place as his life still is in danger.
I just don’t agree that this strengthened the state/Putin. In a way, if someone like Prigozhin without any realistic chance tries a coup and gets away with his life (at least for now) doesn’t this show how weak Russia currently is?
I think he simply grossly overestimated his support, believing that something more would come of it that did not.
I just don’t agree that this strengthened the state/Putin. In a way, if someone like Prigozhin without any realistic chance tries a coup and gets away with his life (at least for now) doesn’t this show how weak Russia currently is?
It has embarrassed Russia for sure, the global south in particular supports Russia a lot and there will be some respect lost through it but that’s not going to change much about why they support Russia (serves their interests to see a multipolar world emerge) so they’ll continue to do so.
While it may have caused foreign embarrassment that’s not really important in terms of “strength” of the state. The strength of a state is determined by the political and military powers within it supporting it and its institutions. Literally all of them did so which has ultimately served to resolve the question “is it possible for Russia to collapse?” with a resounding “No” at this time.
By comparison and to do a big whatabout - I would say that the US has a greater amount of division and potential for political and financial factions to attempt to tear it apart. I however don’t think that there is anyone quite as bold or stupid as Prigo to overestimate their support or underestimate the size of the support you need to tear apart and successfully coup a country like that though.
Like I keep pointing out, the gang of eight were an incredibly powerful coalition that failed. They serve as an example of the kind of coalition you really need to pull this shit off and they make Prigo look like a bit of a joke by comparison. Part of me wonders if members of the Russian intelligence community deliberately led him on into believing he had support in order to create this outcome, but that’s pure speculation. The man isn’t entirely stupid though, so I have to wonder what exactly made him think he would have more support.
TBH, I haven’t read that much about the aftermath. I only heard some parts (e.g. the secret services) kept quiet for quite some time which suggests for me that they didn’t really care either way. If everyone really supported him it does make a coup/collapse less likely. The impression I got was simply:
- The support for Putin was cautious, especially in the beginning
- Putins handling and Lukashenkos involvement do not convey strength thereby making everyone with power more likely to support a future coup
I also don’t think the gang of eight is that diectly relatable because the SU collapsed. Here, it would simply mean replacing one president for another. In theory, a coup is as simple as a successful assasination (ignoring the successor question).
For me, it doesn’t look like there is any way out for Putin. Winning the war is unrealistic at this time, would take a long time and would result in a long embargo from the west, destroying the economy even further. Losing the war will probably result in extreme protests with all the casualties that already occurred. We will see whatever happens. I assume that Prigozhin failed not because the elite support Putin but because they are even more afraid of him. I assume everyone with money wants the war to end.
And about the USA, yeah that’s a bit of a whataboutism. There is a lot of division there and I think they are one bad president away from significantly worsening the situation. We will see about that too I guess.
I think we’re going to end up talking past each other as we disagree and there’s a few things we’d just end up repeating over and over so forgive me for skipping a chunk here. I will respond to this though:
destroying the economy even further
“Even further” is an odd choice here. The Russian economy is stronger now than before the war sanctions. The sanctions failed miserably, everything that Russia could no longer get from the west it simply gets from South East Asia (China/India mainly) and the Middle East now. Reddit thinks there was some great economic smashing of Russia but it really horribly failed.
Winning the war is unrealistic at this time, would take a long time
“Winning” here is more a question of when parties will get round a table to negotiate again. The war almost ended in April but Boris Johnson put a stop to the deal that would have done that. It could end quickly, it could also take a long time, dependent almost entirely on how long the west wants to drag it out as a proxy war for. There is also the question of whether the US and EU might pivot to a focus on China, which would also result in getting round a table to end the Ukraine war first as they simply do not have the means to focus on both at once.
And about the USA, yeah that’s a bit of a whataboutism. There is a lot of division there and I think they are one bad president away from significantly worsening the situation. We will see about that too I guess.
It’s not really whatabout. It’s just useful to have a comparative baseline for “division” to understand what is necessary to create and succeed in a coup. Do you think one would succeed in the US under the current conditions? What factions and groups would need to be involved? This thought experiment is useful for understanding the kind of divisions, alliances and coalitions necessary to making a coup succeed elsewhere. It helps ground your thoughts in a more material reality rather than the fantasies peddled in the media circuit.
You’re right, our views differ quite a lot. In your comment I disagree with basically every conclusion. The Russian economy is worse off, the war will end with Russia getting at most Crimea and a coup in the US is completely unrealistic as of now.
Time will tell.
The whole thing reeks of a fake operation now that Lukashenko was the solution AND Biden making a statement that US isn’t involved. Neither states are trustworthy narrators. Who knows
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Oh boy, Russian shills on Lemmy.
Not a good look.
@Pacifist @TheAnonymouseJoker #Lemmy in general, and lemmy.ml in particular, is known for white-knighting for dictators tho, so this isn’t all too unexpected tbh
Although I guess in most cases they wait for the dictator to die first so that people forget how bad he was
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In their place i would rather prepare for scenario of unexpected collapse of United Kingdom.
Who says they have not prepared for that?
UK politicians never really seem prepared for anything tbh
Considering their preparations for other things, like brexit or covid i would say LOL.
To be fair, it’s not exactly an unexpected scenario.
I would even say, desired.
Fuck, this is reddit people :-D
I’d just like to interject for a moment. What you are refering to as Reddit, is in fact Lemm or as I have recently taken to calling it The+Fediverse …
I meant ‘this is reddit people commenting on lemmy’, which means the fun has begun
The world will be a better place when British regime falls, no question about that.
Implying that there is a current regime.
Correct, it’s a regime that bans public protest and tortures journalists. If one of the designated enemies was caught doing what UK is doing then you’d wast no time calling it a regime.
