Sean Dean reports in The Telegraph:
The question was about Liverpool, but Ivan Toney instead chose to speak about Arsenal. Asked on a podcast earlier this year about his future, and specifically about his support for Liverpool, Toney said: “Yeah, I have been a Liverpool fan my whole life. But from young I have liked Arsenal. I have liked watching Arsenal, how they play and how passionate the fans are.”
Inevitably enough, the gossip machine immediately started to whir. Toney to Arsenal? To many Arsenal supporters, it is an alluring thought. Arsenal have not had a traditional target man since Olivier Giroud left the club in 2018, and Toney has proved himself to be a deadly finisher in the Premier League. On paper, at least, there is a lot to like.
As Arsenal prepare to face Brentford this weekend, then, supporters of both clubs might be wondering if this is a battle between Toney’s future team and his current employers. The striker is still serving his gambling ban, and is therefore unable to play, but his transfer status will be regarded by many as an intriguing plot line on Saturday.
It is no secret Toney is targeting a move to a bigger club. He has said so himself. As of January, he will have 18 months remaining on his Brentford contract and, within the game, it is seen as inevitable that the 27-year-old will soon be departing the Gtech Community Stadium.
Telegraph Sport understands, however, that a January transfer is far from likely. It is also understood that, if Toney is to make a move in the winter window, it will almost certainly not be to Arsenal.
Why? The first reason is that Brentford have no intention of selling their star striker midway through the campaign. Thomas Frank is planning for Toney to lead his attack in the second half of the season and, along with his coaches, is working to create “Ivan Toney version 2.0”.
Brentford’s need for Toney is made greater by the likely loss of strikers Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa to the Africa Cup of Nations, which runs from mid-January to mid-February. Between them, those two players have scored nine of their side’s 19 league goals this season.
Brentford would have been open to selling Toney at the end of last season, but then he was slapped with an eight-month ban from the game. There have been no talks of a new contract and so, with his deal running out, next summer’s transfer window will likely be the club’s last chance to sell him for a significant fee.
This is not to say that Brentford will simply ignore all offers in January. Every player has a price. In this case, though, that price will be extraordinarily high: earlier this season, Frank spoke of the cost of defensive midfielders (Moises Caicedo joined Chelsea for £115 million, while Declan Rice joined Arsenal for £105 million) and made the point that proven goalscorers have traditionally been the most expensive players to acquire.
At Arsenal, Telegraph Sport understands, there is no appetite to spend vast amounts on a new centre-forward this winter. The pot of money is far from full after their summer investments (a combined £200 million on Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber), and it is worth remembering that their deal to sign David Raya, from Brentford, is an initial loan with an option to buy of around £30 million.
It was for financial reasons that the Raya deal was structured in such a way, with the payments for the goalkeeper effectively starting next summer. How could Arsenal strike this type of agreement with Brentford and then, five months later, go back to them with a mega-money offer for Toney? Clearly, it would not be a good look.
Strategically, Arsenal do not view January as a good time to do business. The club have splashed around £600 million on transfer fees since Mikel Arteta’s appointment in 2019, but only around £60 million of that has been spent in winter windows.
Last year, when Arsenal were pushing hard for the league title, was an exception to the usual rule — Leandro Trossard, Jorginho and Jakub Kiwior arrived for a combined cost of around £50 million. Arsenal were actually willing to spend even more that month, having made huge offers for both Mykhailo Mudryk and Caicedo.
This season, however, the feeling at Arsenal is that their squad will be in a good place once their injured players return. There is certainly no sense of urgency when it comes to strengthening the frontline, as Arteta and sporting director Edu are pleased with the performances of Gabriel Jesus, Eddie Nketiah and Leandro Trossard in that position.
Telegraph Sport understands it would therefore take an unexpected opportunity, or a drastic change in circumstances, for Arsenal to invest heavily in another striker this winter.
A more immediate area of concern is in midfield, where there is uncertainty over the futures of Thomas Partey and Jorginho. Partey’s fitness issues have restricted him to only four starts this season, and his contract expires in the summer of 2025. It would not be a surprise if he left before then.
Jorginho’s deal, meanwhile, expires at the end of this season, although there is an option to extend it for another year. Another holding midfielder, Mohamed Elneny, is also out of contact at the end of the current campaign. In the medium to long-term, this is an area that Arsenal will need to address.
So, where does Toney fit into all of this? The answer is that he probably does not fit in at all.
For him to leave Brentford this winter, it will require an offer that very few clubs could make. Perhaps Chelsea is a more obvious destination, given their striker problems, but they cannot keep spending indefinitely.
A swoop for Toney would require Chelsea to move away from their transfer policy of signing young players, and it seems unlikely that his wage demands would fit their new model.
Then there is the issue of Toney’s performances. After eight months out of the game, will he need time to get back up to speed? What sort of player will “Ivan Toney 2.0” be? It would be reasonable for interested clubs to want to wait a few months, and see how he plays in the second half of the season, before throwing wads of cash in Brentford’s direction.
Such things can change in an instant, of course. Sometimes it only takes one injury for a club’s entire transfer policy to be redrawn. But, at this stage of the season, it seems clear that Toney’s departure is not as inevitable or imminent as might have been expected just a few months ago.
Why is it set in stone that Toney goes to Arsenal and not a different club? Is there some sort of backroom deal we’re unaware of here?
The article literally says he won’t go to Arsenal
I rate Toney but Brentford are going to price us out and for that price I’d rather look elsewhere
How much do you think they’ll ask for? Surely arsenal aren’t running that close to the line, financially?
Figure widely quoted was 80mil which for a 28yo with 18months on the contract is a bit steep.
Yeah. Also meant to be s bit of a cunt. Didn’t realize he was do old tbh
That’s only 1.23 Kai Havertz
Not really a fair comparison. Havertz is younger, arguably has a higher ceiling (if and when he is finally played in the correct role) and came from a team which didn’t really need the money and was in no rush to sell as the player was not unsettled and still had a long contract duration.
A more appropriate comparison would be the 20m move for Leandro Trossard, who was also a 28 year old forward who was unsettled, proven at premier league level but is at/near his ceiling and had 18 months left on his contract at a not cash-rich club in January. Viewed through this lens, and even accounting for the English player tax and striker tax, Toney for 80m looks fairly ludicrous. Trossard’s move is widely hailed as a smart piece of transfer business, but had he cost 60 or even 80m, it would have been derided as a massive overpay.
Ah the mythical untapped potential of Havertz
Havertz wasn’t worth even £40m so arsenal have already indicated they will overpay
Sorry, I’m not quite getting your point. originally you said that Toney is only 1.23 havertz, implying he is cheap. Then you said that Havertz is an overpay, which undermines your initial argument. Do you have a point to make about Toney, or are you just taking shots at Havertz? Because there are other threads out there for that.
Maybe you lack the brain power to understand that multiple things can be true, they are hardly conflicting statements.
1 - if arsenal paid 80m for Toney that would be 1.23x of the Havertz fee
2 - Havertz was overpriced but arsenal have now basically told premier league teams they will overpay for even average players thus Brentford will know they can charge a decent fee
Any bets ?
I don’t think he’s worth what they want, so I agree very little chance of him moving in January. The question is where he will go next summer. I feel no top 6 will buy him, none of them need a striker bad enough to pay for a 28 yr old with 1 year left, but I guess it depends how he plays the second half of the season.
Newcastle could be an option tho?
fans don’t think the second best striker is worth that much so let’s keep him and watch him get 20 plus every season for a few years happily
He is betting on it
£60m and Eddie
Have arsenal already given up on jesus then?