We are at 1.3°C above pre-industrial average temperature. Scientists think we will pass 2.5°C.
An NDC is an abbreviation for ‘nationally determined contribution’ i.e. what the world says they will do to mitigate climate change.
“The best estimate of peak temperature in the twenty-first century (projected mostly for 2100 when temperature continues to rise) is in the range of 2.1–2.9 °C depending on the underlying assumptions.52 Without implementation of any conditional elements of NDCs, the best estimate of temperature change is 2.5–2.9 °C warming. Assuming full implementation of NDCs, including all conditional elements, the best estimate for peak global mean temperature is 2.1–2.4 °C.”
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2022_04.pdf https://nitter.net/EliotJacobson/status/1683535568268050432
It is an El - nino year paired with us getting closer to solar maximum in 2025 (solar maximum can increase the temperature by up to 0.10 degrees C), climate is measured across decades to account for yearly variation.
Also the twitter user who made this was unable to justify a normal distribution and said that he would stop doing this. So the creator of the graph doesn’t even believe in it.
