It’s not the 1st time a language/tool will be lost to the annals of the job market, eg VB6 or FoxPro. Though previously all such cases used to happen gradually, giving most people enough time to adapt to the changes.
I wonder what’s it going to be like this time now that the machine, w/ the help of humans of course, can accomplish an otherwise multi-month risky corporate project much faster? What happens to all those COBOL developer jobs?
Pray share your thoughts, esp if you’re a COBOL professional and have more context around the implication of this announcement 🙏
I think you vastly overestimate the separability of these systems.
Picture 10,000 lines of code in one method, with a history of multiple decades.
Now picture that that method has buried in it, complex interactions with another method of similar size, which is triggered via an obscure side-effect.
Picture whole teams of developers adding to this on a daily basis in realtime.
There is no “meaningful progress” to be made here. It may offend your aesthetic sense, but it’s just the reality of doing business.
What’s the alternative in your opinion?
Not doing anything and keep fiddling around in this mess for the next 20 years?
Continue trying to capture this problem big-bang, which means not only dealing with one such unmaintainable module but all of them at once?
Will every module be a piece of cake? Hell no. But if you never start anywhere, it doesn’t get better on its own.
The alternative is to continue with a process that’s been demonstrably successful, despite it offending your sensibilities.
Banks are prepared to pay for it. People are prepared to do it. It meets the business needs. Change is massively high-risk in a hugely conservative industry.
And what is that successful process?