Council on Foreign RelationsWashington, D.C. MR. SULLIVAN: At least I had the bravery to give that speech at Brookings rather than at CFR. So — (laughter) — Mike, I want to say thank you for having me back at CFR. And to Susan and Kurt and Charlene and Steve, thank you for having me back…
This sounds like a prelude to announce their new strategy. But the strategy seems already clear - they called Taiwan their “important military ally”, an incredible provocation. So they are going to try to do the same to China they did to Russia, encircle them on all sides, set a trap, until they lash out. Then they are the bad guys. Hopefully China is smarter than Russia though. But they can’t let Taiwan become an “actively” hostile military outpost of the US right on their doorstep. But I don’t really know what moves either side can realistically make since the economic dependencies are quite strong.
The US will lose in a fight against China over Taiwan. And after Ukraine and Gaza most of the world will not care about its sobbing, they will not believe the west’s claims of standing for this or that and they will stand with China. All they will succeed in doing in instigating a conflict with China is bringing out into the open the new cold war.
It’s not desirable. It’s not optimal, it threatens chaos and all kinds of untold consequences but it is probably much more manageable now that it was before Gaza and Ukraine.
This sounds like a prelude to announce their new strategy. But the strategy seems already clear - they called Taiwan their “important military ally”, an incredible provocation. So they are going to try to do the same to China they did to Russia, encircle them on all sides, set a trap, until they lash out. Then they are the bad guys. Hopefully China is smarter than Russia though. But they can’t let Taiwan become an “actively” hostile military outpost of the US right on their doorstep. But I don’t really know what moves either side can realistically make since the economic dependencies are quite strong.
The US will lose in a fight against China over Taiwan. And after Ukraine and Gaza most of the world will not care about its sobbing, they will not believe the west’s claims of standing for this or that and they will stand with China. All they will succeed in doing in instigating a conflict with China is bringing out into the open the new cold war.
It’s not desirable. It’s not optimal, it threatens chaos and all kinds of untold consequences but it is probably much more manageable now that it was before Gaza and Ukraine.