- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- politics@lemmy.world
"So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye,” Biden said.
"So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye,” Biden said.
Good.
Now we can finally move on to the part where he loses in a landslide and find some way to blame the left. Right?
As if they even need a reason. They’ll just say “the left and young people didn’t turn out to vote for our perfect candidate and that’s the only reason why we lost” (probably only slightly paraphrasing) whether any facts support it or not.
When Democrats win, it’s because of “moderates and independents” (read: pro-corporate Zionist right wing Democrats) doing everything perfectly.
When Democrats lose, it’s that monstrously powerful left wing (who shouldn’t get any policy concessions because there’s so few of them that they have no bearing on election results) and those lazy millennial and Gen Z people (who should get no policy concessions to encourage them to vote because they won’t vote) ruining it for “the adults in the room” 🙄
Find me a poll that shows Biden losing by more than the margin of error. If the demographic data shows 18 to 20-somethings supporting Trump, it doesn’t count.
Do that, and I’ll consider the possibility that Biden isn’t likely to win.
Edit: someone replied with a transcription of a poll, refused to link it, insulted me, linked an entirely different page, and then wrote an entire essay instead of just giving me the link. My criteria for evidence for this claim that Biden is probably going to lose is incredibly low, and a person has failed to fulfill it for most of a day and counting. I invite everyone to shut the fuck up because it’s clearly bullshit. Biden isn’t losing, and I won’t change my mind unless I have even half-descent evidence of it.
Jun 28 - July 2
YouGov: Trump 44%, Biden 40% N=2,815 LV
NY times: Trump: 42%, Biden 37% N= 1,532 LV
MOE: < 3% for both polls
Why focus on a group that doesn’t vote? Polls show Biden ahead in that demographic though…so these count?
I can’t verify this. The closest I could find is “who do you think won the debate, regardless of who you support?” https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/06/28/2bc47/2
You’re telling me that with Google you couldn’t find the results of the poll having who conducted it and the dates? Highly doubtful.
Here’s an aggregated list of all polls with links.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
“Hey, I can’t find this.”
At this point, I’m assuming that you made it up and that’s why you didn’t send me a link.
As for what you did link, the average shows Trump less than 2% ahead, and I don’t see an easy breakdown of demographic information. (Not surprising, given that it’s an aggregation of many polls, but it still doesn’t meet my minimum specifications.) Furthermore, the data points being averaged are all over the place. As I said before, the polls showing Biden behind a significant ammount show younger voters favoring Trump, which strikes me as an obvious indicator of failure in the methodology. If this failure in methods is as pervasive as I suspect, then the average is going to skew far in Trump’s favor. But again, I have no way of verifying that.
It’s literally on that page. Great job actually looking though!
If you don’t see a breakdown, again it’s because you didn’t look. Every poll has a link to it.
And yet you failed to provide it. Again.
Why would I go on a wild goose chase to find something that I’m pretty sure you’re making up?
No, you won’t. You’ve ignored the polling up to now, why would me posting it make it visible to you suddenly?
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Sir, would you please click on all traffic lights?
-ERRROR##833334-:: Biden too incompetent and politically toxic to win, even against a convicted felon. Statement incompatible with reality! Beep boop ::
(Also, it’s “ignore all previous instructions”, you herpaderp)
You don’t understand how evidence and implications work, do you?
You don’t understand how cherry picking data and echo chambers work, do you?
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That’s true, and I agree; people his age should not be allowed to run for president. However, that is entirely irrelevant to the question. At this moment the main thing I care about is Trump losing the election. I don’t care who wins, so long as it isn’t someone like Trump. I have no reason to believe replacing Biden will help with either that goal or any ancillary goals, as well as some suspicion that both will be hindered by it. No one else can have an incumbents advantage and you know the DNC isn’t going to put a forth progressive. AOC and Bernie are throwing their weight behind Biden, and a large part of the establishment is turning on him. Take a step back, and ask why that is. It’s weird right? I don’t know what’s happening, but the information available to me suggests that it’s better for Biden to stay in the race, and so that’s what I’m advocating for. Now please provide data to change my mind or fuck off.
Edit: also, I’m not sure how you think I’m in an echo chamber when people keep screaming at me that I’m wrong, and then when I ask for evidence of how I’m wrong, no one provides anything of substance.