While they didn’t help, I suspect their numbers were small enough to not matter in the scheme of what happened.
The answer is likely mundane. My guess is overall turnout was lower because things didn’t feel as ‘crisis’ like as 2020. The needle for people barely aware of politics even as they vote stayed at the same place as it was in 2020: Things aren’t great, kick whoever is in office out in hopes the alternative does better. Last time they came out for Biden because Trump was at the wheel. Now they show up for Trump because the president was a democrat.
This segment of the electorate is not particularly politically aware, let alone active, and likely has little to no opinion about the broader world. The relative likelihood of them turning up at all depends on how badly things are going (less likely to show up this time compared to the unprecedented mess of 2020), and to the extent they show up they just vote against whoever is in charge that day.
However, those people are generally quiet, and so we turn our focus instead to the loudest folks proclaiming a refusal to vote for Harris.
If it was close, I would agree. It wasn’t even close by such a huge margin the more mundane factors I think are the only ones big enough to explain things.
For the politically disengaged? It is an accurate take.
In 2020, you had massive unemployment. People personally were stuck at home with nowhere they could go. Many of them saw a loved one suffer death at the hands of a pandemic, or personally get very sick. That is a direct and visceral experience of “things are bad”. They didn’t need to follow any news, study any charts, read any policy, they knew that their direct subjective experience was bad.
In 2024, things for people are largely normal, but a lot of bills are high. Grading on a curve, this is much further from a personal crisis for most folks. In fact, the grocery bills eased a bit so some people might be seeing a natural ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
The biggest discused crisis factors in forums like this are only being considered by the politically engaged, and that’s just not most people. Whether it should be or not…
While they didn’t help, I suspect their numbers were small enough to not matter in the scheme of what happened.
The answer is likely mundane. My guess is overall turnout was lower because things didn’t feel as ‘crisis’ like as 2020. The needle for people barely aware of politics even as they vote stayed at the same place as it was in 2020: Things aren’t great, kick whoever is in office out in hopes the alternative does better. Last time they came out for Biden because Trump was at the wheel. Now they show up for Trump because the president was a democrat.
This segment of the electorate is not particularly politically aware, let alone active, and likely has little to no opinion about the broader world. The relative likelihood of them turning up at all depends on how badly things are going (less likely to show up this time compared to the unprecedented mess of 2020), and to the extent they show up they just vote against whoever is in charge that day.
However, those people are generally quiet, and so we turn our focus instead to the loudest folks proclaiming a refusal to vote for Harris.
If it was close, I would agree. It wasn’t even close by such a huge margin the more mundane factors I think are the only ones big enough to explain things.
What an insane take…
This is largely how non voters have responded when asked as far as I’ve seen: “feels like things aren’t broken, I can sit this out”
Its not a take its just the reality we live in.
For the politically disengaged? It is an accurate take.
In 2020, you had massive unemployment. People personally were stuck at home with nowhere they could go. Many of them saw a loved one suffer death at the hands of a pandemic, or personally get very sick. That is a direct and visceral experience of “things are bad”. They didn’t need to follow any news, study any charts, read any policy, they knew that their direct subjective experience was bad.
In 2024, things for people are largely normal, but a lot of bills are high. Grading on a curve, this is much further from a personal crisis for most folks. In fact, the grocery bills eased a bit so some people might be seeing a natural ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
The biggest discused crisis factors in forums like this are only being considered by the politically engaged, and that’s just not most people. Whether it should be or not…
Its definitely a media outreach problem.