Only around 6 / 1,000 shots in the premier league create XG higher than a penalty (so Arsenal had 3/4). And the majority of fouls that lead to a penalty have less than a 10% chance of leading to a goal (including way too many non-deliberate handballs)
Penalties have actually been getting easier with VAR ensuring keepers stay on their lines and the new rules stopping the keepers distracting the taker.
I think it would make the game fairer and more exiting if penalties weren’t an almost guaranteed goal. So I came up with some ideas to reduce the impact of penalties:
- Require the fouled player to take the penalty.
- Offer indirect free kicks for non-deliberate handballs.
- Prohibit stuttered run-ups, making the kicker’s approach more predictable for goalkeepers.
- Move the penalty spot back.
- Use VAR to penalise diving more harshly
Let me know if you agree that penalties are too hard and if so how we could change them?
I’ve also explored more ideas in a new video, consider giving it a watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6elPY8ZvtI.
I’ve always felt that too many occasions don’t merit a free shot on goal from 12yds. Like a foul near the edge of the box when there’s 5+ defenders between them and the goal. I think the occasions aren’t specific enough to merit the change, but it would be ideal imo to see those instances become direct free kicks inside the box instead, allowing a wall since there were defenders there when the infringement occurred.
Michael Cox (The Athletic) suggested having a semi-circle penalty area a la 5-a-side.
This way, any foul within this area would be close enough to goal to justify a penalty.
Then again… If the offensive player is running away from goal i.e. to the touchline, then this idea falls flat.
Then don’t break the rules and foul opponents in your penalty area
If that’s the case, then punish everything in the box. Referees already apply selective reasoning to penalties, as ‘contact not warranting a penalty’ is always used to justify decisions. If it would be a free kick outside of the box (like Hojlunds grab on Rodri) then punish it accordingly.
It isn’t expressly treated any differently
How many dives or simulations do we see in those exact scenarios?
Not particularly many
That’s an entirely separate issue.