ptdotme’s NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 12

(By popular demand, see the rankings without the influence of last year’s season-ending ratings in my comment below, or here.)

This is OC. I’ve written code to calculate NFL team Elo ratings^1 on a week to week basis. The goal is to use simple Elo ratings to create power rankings without the influence of human bias and emotion. The ratings are based on each team’s rating from the previous week, with a “parity reset” applied every offseason. The model has been tested for accuracy against game outcomes since week 1 of the 2012^2 season. The ratings are derived only from each game’s score, venue, and date. There are a number of variables/weights in my secret sauce but otherwise they’re fairly conservative, basic, Elo ratings.

This is all a work in progress and feedback is appreciated! See more stats and info on my 2023 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.

Note: You may feel teams are ranked too high or low based on recent games, and you may be right. However, the model has been tested and is more accurate when it doesn’t overreact to individual games. The goal is model accuracy, not rankings that “look right.” ^(2)  

Rank Team Elo Rating Record
1 San Francisco 49ers 1587 (+9) 8-3
2 Dallas Cowboys 1578 (+10) 8-3
3 Baltimore Ravens 1565 (+5) 9-3
4 Buffalo Bills 1556 6-6
5 Philadelphia Eagles 1555 10-1
6 Kansas City Chiefs 1552 (+8) 8-3
7 (+1) Miami Dolphins 1537 (+12) 8-3
8 (-1) Detroit Lions 1524 (-7) 8-3
9 (+1) Jacksonville Jaguars 1523 8-3
10 (-1) Cincinnati Bengals 1519 (-6) 5-6
11 (+1) Los Angeles Chargers 1514 (-6) 4-7
12 (+1) Minnesota Vikings 1507 (-6) 6-6
13 (-2) Cleveland Browns 1505 (-15) 7-4
14 (+2) Green Bay Packers 1504 (+7) 5-6
15 (+4) Denver Broncos 1504 (+15) 6-5
16 (+2) Pittsburgh Steelers 1496 (+6) 7-4
17 (-2) New Orleans Saints 1492 (-8) 5-6
18 (-4) Seattle Seahawks 1491 (-9) 6-5
19 (+3) Los Angeles Rams 1489 (+15) 5-6
20 Houston Texans 1488 (-1) 6-5
21 (-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1486 (-4) 4-7
22 (+1) Indianapolis Colts 1477 (+4) 6-5
23 (+1) Atlanta Falcons 1476 (+8) 5-6
24 (-3) Las Vegas Raiders 1469 (-8) 5-7
25 (+3) Chicago Bears 1466 (+6) 4-8
26 (-1) New England Patriots 1463 (-3) 2-9
27 Tennessee Titans 1463 (+2) 4-7
28 (+2) New York Giants 1451 (+2) 4-8
29 (-3) New York Jets 1450 (-12) 4-7
30 (-1) Washington Commanders 1449 (-10) 4-8
31 (+1) Carolina Panthers 1433 (-2) 1-10
32 (-1) Arizona Cardinals 1431 (-14) 2-10

^(1)See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant’s estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to …

^(2)Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from 2010 have zero impact on today’s ratings. Ratings from only a couple years ago, say 2021, have almost no effect on today’s ratings. Seasons going back to 2010 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.