• 0 Posts
  • 94 Comments
Joined 1 month ago
cake
Cake day: February 4th, 2026

help-circle

  • Yeah, problem is that you lot have been going on about how the war will inevitably and swiftly end in a Russian victory every day since the war started - often in the same hyperbolic way that you’re writing now (see attached image). The sources I’ve preferred to follow have been clear from the beginning that this is going to take a while, and that the outcome is not certain (aside from the fact that it will be horrible for both Russians and Ukrainians)

    Was it against international law when the Banderites engaged with their war against Russian speaking civilians in the Donbass for 8 years

    Civil war is not against international law, but of course that’s not quite what the war in Donbas was. Either way, you’re using a whataboutism to sidestep the point.


















  • Those three are all real factors, but I think you are exaggerating their size and importance.

    The increase in oil price and softening of US sanctions will benefit the Russians, but it won’t make the war economy sustainable.

    Western armories are running bare, but the same is true for the Russian ones. Both Ukraine and Russia are mostly using equipment as it’s being produced, and both Ukraine and the rest of Europe has been ramping up production capacity. I imagine you’re right that it’s worse for Ukraine to lose access to American air defense systems than it is for Russia to lose access to Iranian Shaheds.

    The high energy prices are a problem in Europe, but compared to the situation in Russia (or Ukraine, for that matter) there’s nothing EXTREME about it.

    The reason peace negotiations have been hopeless, is because the Ukrainians and the Russians can’t agree on where the war is headed. The Russians believe that if they just keep going, the Europeans will get bored and give up, while Ukrainians believe that they can keep going longer than the Russians because they are supported by a European economy that is not in an unsustainable “war mode”.

    Who is right is up to us, and given that every single demand that the Russians have is against some pretty fundamental international law, it is in the interest of future European peace to ensure that the Ukrainians are right - and to make that as obvious as possible to the Russians so that peace negotiations become possible.