• 390 Posts
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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 25th, 2023

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  • For those that don’t want to click the X link:

    General purpose technologies are the closest thing we have to magic.

    Each has given us more with less - and propelled civilization forward. Check out this list of 24 over the last 10,000 years

    • Domestication of plants
    • Domestication of animals
    • Smelting of ore
    • Money
    • Wheel
    • Writing
    • Bronze
    • Iron
    • Water wheel
    • Three-masted sailing ship
    • Printing
    • Factory system
    • Steam Engine
    • Railways
    • Steamship
    • Internal combustion engine
    • Electricity
    • Automobile
    • Airplane
    • Mass production
    • Computer
    • Lean production
    • Internet
    • Biotechnology

    AND we have AI, the ultimate meta-technology…

    the real question is how many further general-purpose technologies it can unlock in turn.


  • Climate

    • 2024 hottest year on record (so far)
    • COP30 a failure
    • Large storms / floods destroy portion of a US city
    • Oil and Gas continues to expand

    AI / Tech

    • AI roll out continues and more and more businesses shed staff for AI
    • No sign of AGI
    • No significant roll out of AI powered robots other than in isolated cases

    Economy

    • Bitcoin hits $200k at some point in 2025
    • Global Inflation Down
    • Global Interest rates Down
    • Inequality continues to rise globally

    War

    • More conflict in middle east, potentially China joins fray somewhere
    • Stalemate in Ukraine, no formal end to war

    Medicine

    • Neuralink/BCI makes progress but nothing groundbreaking

    Energy

    • Solar / Wind continues to expand, prices drop further
    • Fusion 30 years away