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Cake day: June 7th, 2023

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  • Both are exceedingly unlikely. I can see Trump dropping a bomb ling before Israel. Not that Israel isn’t malicious enough to do it, but they know they couldn’t handle the reprisals. Trump is truly that dumb though.

    Russia wouldn’t follow suit for similar reasons to Israel. The threat of nuclear weapons is far more useful to them than actually deploying one. They have put a lot of effort into slowly ramping up “accidental” incursions on NATO to push back the threshold for invoking article 5. Using a nuke would be guaranteed to blow right past that threshold. The cover from Israel or the US having used one in Iran might matter in the history books, but not to NATO.




  • You seriously have no idea what you are talking about. Not a fucking clue.

    If progressives were dominant in the Democratic party, there is no way Schumer and Jeffries would be running the show in Congress. The ability of a handful of freshmen progressives to replace either with a left leaning Democrat is non-existent, and that’s assuming they win the general.

    Even if progressives dominated the elected offices, that wouldn’t make them “the establishment”. The term means something, and it’s not “the DNC”. The establishment is the entire structure of influence behind the party, including not only politicians, but donors, consultants, and the oligarch owned media.

    Progressives have made a lot of progress, but we have much further left to go. We could lose almost all the progress we have made if we don’t outperform the establishment candidates by a wide margin in the general. The “electability” argument has always been the establishment’s best weapon against progressives, and it’s absolutely critical that we use this election to prove it wrong.


  • This is correct, but it’s worth noting that voting is a bare minimum level of engagement. Despite the rhetoric from the establishment, exit polls show that progressives have been remarkably consistent in showing up to vote for shitty establishment candidates. What they won’t do is donate to their campaigns, or volunteer their time, effort, and expertise. Nobody wants to knock on doors for a candidate they can barely stomach voting for.

    There will always be an enthusiasm vacuum for establishment candidates, and that matters. That is a big part of why the DNC is already $2million in debt going into this election, despite the expectation of a blue wave.