Welp, I played myself. I was really intending to talk about the AMOC shutting down, but wrote “Gulf Stream” as shorthand instead because I didn’t want to spell out the whole acronym and it’s more famous/less necessary to explain (I was tapping the comment on a phone at the time).
Then, just my luck, you come in citing a source talking (among other things) about how the Gulf Stream specifically won’t shut down totally, because of the component of it that isn’t AMOC. 🤦
FAQ 9.3 | Will the Gulf Stream Shut Down?
…Based on models and theory, scientific studies indicate that, while the AMOC is expected to slow in a warming climate, the Gulf Stream will not change much and would not shut down totally, even if the AMOC did…
…
…The Gulf Stream is part of two major circulation patterns, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre…
Anyway, that gaffe aside:
I didn’t read through that report to see what it says about the timeline for the AMOC collapse in particular, but I’ve been paying a little bit of attention to the topic for a while now and it seems to me that, as new studies come out, they tend to revise the bounds of the estimate sooner and sooner. I feel like it’s gone from “maybe by the end of the century” in the older studies to “maybe a decade or so from now” in some of the most recent ones. Personally, I think it’s alarmingly possibly imminent. That’s just my impression, though; it’s not as if I did a legitimate literature review.
No, it was too respectful towards women.