“From the Black Sea to the Red Sea, powerful navies are finding that access to contested waters can no longer be taken for granted. The decisive maritime strategy of the 21st century is not sea control but sea denial — and its true pioneer was not a great power but an archipelagic one. For the middle powers of the Indo-Pacific, this is not a threat to be managed. It is leverage waiting to be seized.”
Ukraine and Iran have just demonstrated how to humble superpower navies, even when you don’t have a navy yourself. Ukraine has run down Russia’s ship defenses and used low-cost drones to finish off its fleet. 90+ merchant marine ships in the Black Sea in the last 10 days alone.
Iran is executing a variation on this strategy. It’s hitting all the Middle East bases that support the US Navy. The US is having to run down its (very expensive) stockpile of anti-drone missiles. Iran will still have thousands of cheap drones left when it does.
OP ~ a Deputy Foreign Minister of Indonesia ~ points out that this isn’t just a once-off. It’s the new naval paradigm for the 21st century. From Indonesia’s POV, the big naval power to contain is China. That country, too, will face the same asymmetric containment of its regional naval ambitions.
The Sea Denial Trap: Why the Age of Unrestricted Sea Power Is Ending
What?
It’s wild to me that someone thinks what happens in a narrow strait can be extrapolated to open seas.
Like, hand Donald Trump the best laptop in the world and he’s gonna maybe be able to figure out how to find porn on it. That doesn’t mean that’s all the computer can do, just that trump doesn’t understand how to use it.
Just like he doesn’t understand how to use the largest Navy in the solar system.
I don’t think Russia was using navy against Ukraine, but Ukraine blew up a bunch of Russian military ships in port, because why not?
But again, that doesn’t mean navies are useless, if being susceptible to attacks while in port made a navy useless, then why didn’t it end navies right before the US joined WW2?
Military ships are a prime target, because they’re important. If they were useless Ukraine wouldn’t have targeted them.
