Part of the reason is the inverse square law, which essentially means that the further away you get from the source of the signal, the weaker the signal gets. So in order to get a signal from a distant planet to Earth, it has to be incredibly high-powered.
My personal theory about the Fermi paradox either that a civilization around our level of technology just doesn’t happen to exist within a reasonable distance of us at the same time as us or we just haven’t been looking long enough.
The galaxy is around 13 billion years old.
The solar system is around 5 billion years old.
Homo Sapiens have only been around for about 300,000 years.
Our ability to scan the skies with a radiotelescope has only been for a little over 100 years.
The Wow! signal was detected 40 years ago.
If there is a technologically advanced civilization within a reasonable distance, have we really been looking long enough to find out?
Also, say we did detect one. Our ability to respond limits us to a very long response time. Then another to get back an acknowledgment.
I’ve casually mused that the slow roll of disclosure (tdb if that is what we are seeing) that began in 2017 might be because we finally heard back “Earth sounds nice, looking forward to having you for dinner, I mean having dinner WITH you. Sincerely, Zorblax”.
This is part of the reason that I think that if (and that’s a BIG “if”) the government is by some chance in contact with aliens, the president probably isn’t in the loop.
Let’s imagine Bill Clinton started a conversation with a civilization based around proxima centauri (the nearest star to the sun) the day he took office. Assuming no FTL travel/communication, they’re a bit over 4 light years away, that means it takes 4+ years for our message to reach them, and the same amount of time for us to receive their reply, Bill is out of office by the time we get a reply, so their message reaches W probably right around 9/11, then the next reply we get is a year or so into Obama’s presidency, then about halfway through Trump’s term they probably just received his message, and depending on how this next election turns out either Biden will get their reply in about 2027 or Trump will be the first president who could have had a full back-and-forth with another planet since Grover Cleveland EDIT: FDR (forgot about his wonky terms) (which is a scary through.) That’s a hell of a way to have a conversation.
That timeline of course gets shorter if we’re dealing with aliens based out of our solar system or somewhere in interstellar space, or potentially much longer if they’re somewhere much further away than the nearest star to us.
If the government is in contact with aliens, I think it would have to be in the hands of some career military types or unelected bureaucrats whose careers can last decades and they have more opportunities to pick and groom their successors.
I have often considered this. It does seem like the kind of thing you’d only read people into if absolutely necessary.
We know Hillary Clinton and John Podesta are into the phenomenon.
Presumably, if Bill was “briefed” he would have told them something by now.
The Obamas are actively working on a Betty and Barney Hill documentary. Presumably they are interested.
All of these people asked about it.
But why tell them anything at all?
I feel like presidents would be seen to need to maintain a distance from this unless there was a need for them to make a decision or announcement and lying through omission is ok in the intelligence community, it seems.
If there is any truth to rumours that people have literally been killed to keep this a secret it would be a bigger scandal than Iran/Contra, etc. No need to air that laundry if they don’t have to. If they have imperfect knowledge of the phenomenon, no need to admit that and show weakness or create fear.
And so on. I think if we thought some vehicle might show up in a very public way, they would read a president in and prep them to address the public and other world leaders.
We have only a single advanced civilization to use as a comparison point for the strength or our telescopes, and that’s ourselves. From my understanding of it, the most powerful broadcast we’ve made out is 15-20MW for an over the horizon radar system, and that only ran for 40 years or so. I don’t have an exact answer, but my understanding is that even for our largest radio telescope, 20 megawatts at a distance of 100 lightyears would be below the noise floor.
Nuclear tests are slightly more visible than that, but only occur periodically, so you’d have to have a telescope facing the right way by coincidence. Basically, if there’s an Earth-like civilization 200 lightyears away, I think we would be entirely blind to it, and that’s over a tiny distance in the scheme of things.
The farthest known exoplanet is 27,710 lightyears away, and was discovered by the transit method - but this was made possible because the planet is very big (bigger and heavier than Jupiter), and orbits quite close to its star (with a 43 hour orbit). To be detectable at that range, a signal has to be stronger than some stars are bright.
Earth also has more evidence for being rarer; not many rocky planets in the habitable zone around a g-type star discovered. If that is the case, the rare or early arguments would hold.
I always wondered if maybe they’re everywhere, but we just don’t know how to look for them yet? Like an uncontacted tribe surrounded by wi-fi signals or something.
ChatGPT 3.5
User
Can you expand on this counter point to the fermi paradox “Low frequency of contact is entirely possible and perhaps probably. Expecting contact on human life time scales is a fallacy.”
ChatGPT
Certainly! The Fermi Paradox raises the question of why, given the vast number of potentially habitable planets in the universe, we have not yet observed any conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations. The counterpoint you mentioned suggests that the low frequency of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations might be entirely possible and even likely for several reasons:
Vast distances: The universe is unimaginably vast, and the distances between stars and galaxies are enormous. Even with advanced technology, interstellar travel could be extremely challenging and time-consuming. It may simply take civilizations much longer than a human lifetime to develop the means to travel to other star systems.
Different timeframes: If there are other advanced civilizations out there, they may have developed at different times in cosmic history. It's possible that some civilizations arose billions of years ago and have since gone extinct, while others are still emerging. This disparity in timing could explain why we haven't made contact yet.
Communication limitations: Even if advanced civilizations exist, our ability to detect their signals or reach out to them may be limited by our current technological capabilities. They may be using communication methods or frequencies that we haven't discovered or can't detect.
Rare intelligence: It's possible that intelligent life is relatively rare in the universe, and the emergence of civilizations like ours is a rare occurrence. If this is the case, then finding other intelligent civilizations may be like searching for a needle in a cosmic haystack.
Survival challenges: Advanced civilizations may face existential risks or challenges that make their long-term survival difficult. These challenges could include natural disasters, environmental crises, or even self-destructive tendencies. Such factors could limit the longevity of civilizations.
In light of these factors, expecting contact with extraterrestrial civilizations within the span of a human lifetime might be overly optimistic. It’s important to consider the vast timescales and distances involved in the search for extraterrestrial life, and to be patient and open to the possibility that contact may occur, but not necessarily within our immediate timeframe.
User
Make the argument based on it being physically impossible for civilizations to expand exponentially
ChatGPT
The argument that civilizations may not expand exponentially due to physical constraints is an intriguing one and can be considered as a potential explanation for the Fermi Paradox. Here’s the argument:
Resource limitations: Civilizations, like any other entities, are bound by the finite resources available in their environment. Expanding exponentially would require access to ever-increasing resources, including energy, raw materials, and living space. Eventually, a civilization may reach a point where it exhausts the available resources in its vicinity.
Environmental impact: As civilizations expand and consume more resources, they also generate waste and environmental impacts. This could lead to ecological damage, pollution, and even climate change. A civilization that grows too rapidly without sustainable practices could face catastrophic consequences, potentially curtailing its growth.
Technological limitations: Exponential expansion assumes the development of advanced technologies for interstellar travel and resource extraction. However, it's possible that there are inherent physical limits to technology that make such advancements exceedingly difficult or impossible. For example, the energy requirements for interstellar travel might be prohibitively high.
Competition and conflict: As civilizations expand, they may come into contact with other civilizations also vying for resources and territory. This could lead to conflicts and competition for limited resources, potentially resulting in the decline or destruction of one or both civilizations.
Self-regulation: Civilizations may develop mechanisms for self-regulation and sustainability. They might recognize the dangers of unchecked exponential growth and deliberately limit their expansion to ensure long-term survival. Such civilizations might prioritize the preservation of their own environment and resources over rapid expansion.
Rare emergence of intelligence: The development of intelligent life capable of forming advanced civilizations could be an exceedingly rare occurrence in the universe. If so, the likelihood of multiple civilizations coexisting and expanding exponentially at the same time may be low.
Overall, the argument that physical constraints, including resource limitations, technological challenges, environmental impacts, competition, and self-regulation, could prevent civilizations from expanding exponentially is a valid perspective on the Fermi Paradox. It suggests that the difficulty of overcoming these limitations might be a significant factor in explaining why we have not yet observed widespread extraterrestrial civilizations in the universe.
The problem is that the lack of replication of the Wow! signal does not give it credibility as an intentional message.
Is this the new Fermi paracox: If there are life out there, why didnt we get many Wow signal by now?
Part of the reason is the inverse square law, which essentially means that the further away you get from the source of the signal, the weaker the signal gets. So in order to get a signal from a distant planet to Earth, it has to be incredibly high-powered.
My personal theory about the Fermi paradox either that a civilization around our level of technology just doesn’t happen to exist within a reasonable distance of us at the same time as us or we just haven’t been looking long enough.
The galaxy is around 13 billion years old.
The solar system is around 5 billion years old.
Homo Sapiens have only been around for about 300,000 years.
Our ability to scan the skies with a radiotelescope has only been for a little over 100 years.
The Wow! signal was detected 40 years ago.
If there is a technologically advanced civilization within a reasonable distance, have we really been looking long enough to find out?
Also, say we did detect one. Our ability to respond limits us to a very long response time. Then another to get back an acknowledgment.
I’ve casually mused that the slow roll of disclosure (tdb if that is what we are seeing) that began in 2017 might be because we finally heard back “Earth sounds nice, looking forward to having you for dinner, I mean having dinner WITH you. Sincerely, Zorblax”.
This is part of the reason that I think that if (and that’s a BIG “if”) the government is by some chance in contact with aliens, the president probably isn’t in the loop.
Let’s imagine Bill Clinton started a conversation with a civilization based around proxima centauri (the nearest star to the sun) the day he took office. Assuming no FTL travel/communication, they’re a bit over 4 light years away, that means it takes 4+ years for our message to reach them, and the same amount of time for us to receive their reply, Bill is out of office by the time we get a reply, so their message reaches W probably right around 9/11, then the next reply we get is a year or so into Obama’s presidency, then about halfway through Trump’s term they probably just received his message, and depending on how this next election turns out either Biden will get their reply in about 2027 or Trump will be the first president who could have had a full back-and-forth with another planet since
Grover ClevelandEDIT: FDR (forgot about his wonky terms) (which is a scary through.) That’s a hell of a way to have a conversation.That timeline of course gets shorter if we’re dealing with aliens based out of our solar system or somewhere in interstellar space, or potentially much longer if they’re somewhere much further away than the nearest star to us.
If the government is in contact with aliens, I think it would have to be in the hands of some career military types or unelected bureaucrats whose careers can last decades and they have more opportunities to pick and groom their successors.
I have often considered this. It does seem like the kind of thing you’d only read people into if absolutely necessary.
We know Hillary Clinton and John Podesta are into the phenomenon.
Presumably, if Bill was “briefed” he would have told them something by now.
The Obamas are actively working on a Betty and Barney Hill documentary. Presumably they are interested.
All of these people asked about it.
But why tell them anything at all?
I feel like presidents would be seen to need to maintain a distance from this unless there was a need for them to make a decision or announcement and lying through omission is ok in the intelligence community, it seems.
If there is any truth to rumours that people have literally been killed to keep this a secret it would be a bigger scandal than Iran/Contra, etc. No need to air that laundry if they don’t have to. If they have imperfect knowledge of the phenomenon, no need to admit that and show weakness or create fear.
And so on. I think if we thought some vehicle might show up in a very public way, they would read a president in and prep them to address the public and other world leaders.
We have only a single advanced civilization to use as a comparison point for the strength or our telescopes, and that’s ourselves. From my understanding of it, the most powerful broadcast we’ve made out is 15-20MW for an over the horizon radar system, and that only ran for 40 years or so. I don’t have an exact answer, but my understanding is that even for our largest radio telescope, 20 megawatts at a distance of 100 lightyears would be below the noise floor.
Nuclear tests are slightly more visible than that, but only occur periodically, so you’d have to have a telescope facing the right way by coincidence. Basically, if there’s an Earth-like civilization 200 lightyears away, I think we would be entirely blind to it, and that’s over a tiny distance in the scheme of things.
The farthest known exoplanet is 27,710 lightyears away, and was discovered by the transit method - but this was made possible because the planet is very big (bigger and heavier than Jupiter), and orbits quite close to its star (with a 43 hour orbit). To be detectable at that range, a signal has to be stronger than some stars are bright.
Earth also has more evidence for being rarer; not many rocky planets in the habitable zone around a g-type star discovered. If that is the case, the rare or early arguments would hold.
I always wondered if maybe they’re everywhere, but we just don’t know how to look for them yet? Like an uncontacted tribe surrounded by wi-fi signals or something.
This is more or less the plot of the book Accelerando.
I’d love a fermi paracox
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
“if there is life out there, why hasn’t it noticed us, senpai, does it not like us??? Why don’t they text us every night!”
Low frequency of contact is entirely possible and perhaps probably. Expecting contact on human life time scales is a fallacy.
is that an chatGpt post?
Why do you think that?
Too generic with no explanation
ChatGPT 3.5 User Can you expand on this counter point to the fermi paradox “Low frequency of contact is entirely possible and perhaps probably. Expecting contact on human life time scales is a fallacy.” ChatGPT
Certainly! The Fermi Paradox raises the question of why, given the vast number of potentially habitable planets in the universe, we have not yet observed any conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations. The counterpoint you mentioned suggests that the low frequency of contact with extraterrestrial civilizations might be entirely possible and even likely for several reasons:
In light of these factors, expecting contact with extraterrestrial civilizations within the span of a human lifetime might be overly optimistic. It’s important to consider the vast timescales and distances involved in the search for extraterrestrial life, and to be patient and open to the possibility that contact may occur, but not necessarily within our immediate timeframe. User Make the argument based on it being physically impossible for civilizations to expand exponentially ChatGPT
The argument that civilizations may not expand exponentially due to physical constraints is an intriguing one and can be considered as a potential explanation for the Fermi Paradox. Here’s the argument:
Overall, the argument that physical constraints, including resource limitations, technological challenges, environmental impacts, competition, and self-regulation, could prevent civilizations from expanding exponentially is a valid perspective on the Fermi Paradox. It suggests that the difficulty of overcoming these limitations might be a significant factor in explaining why we have not yet observed widespread extraterrestrial civilizations in the universe.
Thats what chatgpt looks like
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Is your comment one?