Americans have depleted their excess savings and are now depleting their credit lines as well. The percentage with delinquent credit card debt is approaching the peak at the end of the dotcom bubble.
Americans have depleted their excess savings and are now depleting their credit lines as well. The percentage with delinquent credit card debt is approaching the peak at the end of the dotcom bubble.
Okay, but what you’re presenting here still shows growth in GDP in Q1 ‘24. It’s decelerated, but it’s still growth. It’s not a decline.
Correct, which is why I’m saying we aren’t in a recession YET.
Even if they announce a decline in the 2nd quarter on June 27th, we would still need a decline in the 3rd quarter to be a recession.
Positive growth is not a decline. The decline is in the 2nd derivative, not in the velocity. You need 2 consecutive Q of NEGATIVE numbers. Not decreasing positive numbers.
Correct, which is why we aren’t in a recession YET.
Even if the Q2 numbers go negative when they’re announced later this month, we STILL aren’t in a recession unless the Q3 numbers are also negative.