This is an interesting piece of research that has been doing the rounds. It speculates about the financial effects of AI displacing workers. In essence, what happens when AI-induced unemployment and wage reduction lead to reduced demand in the economy, even as AI makes sectors more productive.

This kind of speculation is nothing new; people have been wondering about this scenario for years. What interests me about this particular piece of research is the reaction to it. Predictably, Big Tech’s defenders have come out criticizing it, yet all around us are the signs that it’s coming true.

TL;DR: “AGI works, replaces us, we lose our job economy crashes.” Now with more fancy financial words that the finance bros like.

But the article assumes AI can do things that it absolutely can’t do. Or certainly not in the current generation. And then you have the matter of legal liability if you let some home brewn AI software manage all your finances and company resources.

Unfortunately the thought exercise buys into all the GenAI moonshot promises as its premise, which means it’ll just pump it even more.

Influencers and media will pass it around as a ‘view to the future’ rather than a thought exercise and their audience will think “shit, I need to invest asap or I’ll miss the boat”.