One of the most persistent dystopian futurist tropes is that AI & robotics tech will be controlled by the 1%, and the rest of us will be serfs living in a hellscape. I’m not surprised the idea is so popular; it’s a Sci-Fi mainstay, but I am surprised so many people can’t see that it’s very unlikely to be true.
Free Open-Source AI is the equal of the stuff investors have spent 100’s of billions of dollars on & robotics is not far behind. Furthermore, we know we have two future sources of cheap, widely available robotics - Chinese manufacturing & 3-D printing.
It’s not as dramatic storytelling for Sci-Fi, but future robots are likely to be cheap and widely owned by everyone. So will the economic benefits that stem from that.
I’ve always thought that in the very long term there is hope, and I used to share your viewpoint entirely, but I’ve come to disagree with you. Whether we will live in a utopia or a dystopia depends entirely on politics, not technical solutions. Giving the public new technical solutions empowers the public in the very short term, but those who are in a position of control always have greater capability to utilize those same technical solutions than those who are not. Those in power also have the ability to shape the development of technical solutions to solidify their own position, either through investment in the R&D itself or through the legal system. Introduction of new technology ultimately has no long-term effect on the balance of power. What does have an effect is widespread, unified political movements. I don’t currently see any sign of that occurring, and the prospects for it occurring are actively getting worse, due largely to the influence of the same technology that was briefly liberating us. Unless everyone’s lives get so bad that we no longer have anything to lose, I don’t see that situation changing.
I was going to reply with a whole breakdown of the different technologies at play, but maybe that misses the point. If you change the fundamentals of economics, like say removing any constraints not related to land and natural factors with robots, social structures will change as well. Technology is free enough a big company couldn’t lock it down overnight, you’re right, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the end result is equality, either.
Is the hellscape scenario really that far-fetched? We have inequality and a class system right now, but the average person still moves up or down the socioeconomic ladder somewhat in their lifetime. That’s historically unusual. I hope it doesn’t happen, but hellscape would actually be the least remarkable result to somebody looking back 1000 years from now, in the sense it would match the most of the centuries before.
