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Cake day: October 12th, 2023

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  • People who assume Chelsea are going to come good are basing it on two things. Recent history and Money spent, and both of those things don’t necessarily matter.

    • Recent history - If Roman Abromovich or any of his team were still in place, then pointing to the history is a decent point. Abromovich’s team showed that they could do it, But that leadership is gone. We don’t know if Boehly and company can do it. And lets face it, They’ve done a lot of weird things. Maybe they are geniuses and we just don’t see it yet, but its just as likely if not more likely that they are making mistakes.
    • Money Spent - There is no denying that success in world football is highly correlated with Money Spent and Chelsea have spent a ton. However its not a perfect correlation. While you have examples like Man City who spend a lot of money really well and become absolutely dominant., you also have examples like Man United who spend a lot of money poorly. Sure, ManU has won a few cups in the last 10 years, but I don’t think many people consider them a success given the money they’ve spent, the players they’ve signed and the managers they’ve hired.

    With Chelsea its to early to tell if they’ve spent the money well or not. If they did, then they could be a powerhouse in a short time. At this point it looks like they could have some hits, but it also looks like there are at least a few misses.

    I fully expect Chelsea to climb back up to the European spots this season, but this thread is about title contenders. Until they show that they know what they are doing from an executive level, its going to be hard to say that they are title contenders.


  • My theory is that Defending is more stressful and tiring than a possession based offense. It requires more running and more focus. Both of which get harder to do the more tired you get.

    As a result they might not close down Saka quick enough so that he can get his cross off, or They just loose track of Rice on the back post and he gets a quick shot.

    Another thing to think about is that a lot of teams go even more defensive in the last 15 twenty minutes of a game trying to hold a result. It means that the offensive team as a lot more chances, because the defensive team isn’t competing for possession.


  • This is largely pointless because everyone commenting is screwed up by there biases.

    1. Man City - Most people won’t say anyone other than City because the recent history makes it seem silly to suggest that City won’t do it. I get that, but people forget this isn’t the same city team that has won 5 of the last 6. Yea, they are still extremely good, and are arguably the still the favorites. However, key players are getting older or have left. Is the motivation the same after so many wins. Personally, I don’t think this is the best city team, and I think there rivals for the title are much better than they have been in the past. Streaks don’t last for ever.

    2. Liverpool - This one is weird. Lot of people still have the the awesome Liverpool team from 18/19 to 21/22 in there head, but its contradicted by the poor Liverpool team of most of last season. Their offense is still great, but where they struggled was Defense and Midfield. There is definitely improvements in midfield, but I’m not sure about defense and I don’t know if these improvements are enough to take them over 38 games.

    3. Arsenal - Obviously I’m biased. Lets get that out of the way. The team has been different in 23/24 then it was last season, but still on 30 points after 38 games. The question is if this is the new normal or is this a case of the team needing to settle so that it can take a step up from here. I’m a fan, so I tend to look at it as Arsenal haven’t played their best for a variety of reasons. So when they pull it all together they will really make a push for the title.

    I also think people have a tendency to underestimate Arsenal, and back up that opinion with revisionist history. For example, before the 21/22 season rivals and pundits thought it would be another 8th-6th year, but when we narrowly missed 4th it wasn’t all about Arsenal bottling it instead of them doing a lot better than originally expected. Before the 22/23 season, rival fans and pundits had us at most at 4th. but when we narrowly missed the title everyone talked about us bottling the league rather than the doing better than originally expected.

    So while, I can see why people might think this is the new normal and arsenal will struggle. I also think a lot of people think this because they have this idea that Arsenal have a recent history of failure rather than consistent improvement.

    1. The others
    • Spurs - have done a lot better than I expected, but are no where near the finished product they need to be to really challenge for a title. If they keep investing and improving they could be dangerous in a year or two. Hopefully Levy and Co will screw this up.
    • Aston Villa - Feel kind of stupid for even including them but they are 4th at the moment. There December is kind of brutal. I’m sure they will finish in the European places. Maybe squeak into CL with 5th or a EL win.
    • Man United - there organization is to much of a mess for them to really challenge. That said, last season showed that they can be very good for stretches. I could see them playing spoilers.
    • Newcastle - There current 7th is harsh, I bet they will move up with a relatively weak December. I think 4th or 5th is very much in the cards for them, but not strong enough yet to challenge for the title.
    • Chelsea - They are 14 points back already. Obviously they are logically out of the title race this year. I think they will do better than their current 10th, but lets face it. They’ve been a shit show from the top for a season or two. A lot of people assume they will eventually get there shit together, but I don’t know why.
    • Brighton - Very good team still, but I think there days as a team punching above there weight are coming to an end. However, they could play spoilers.

    Now that I’ve likely pissed off everyone. I’ll stop.



  • Nothing happened to it. Spurs started really well, and a lot of people forgot about the basics of league football.

    The season is 38 games. Not 3, Not 5, Not 8.

    As I said, spurs started well but a lot of good start was against the bottom of the table. They also had some very good fortune against the other teams they played.

    They are also a fairly shallow team that’s switching to a new style. They haven’t had enough transfer windows to build up a bench for the new style. Also, teams have now had time to really see how they are going to play and have a better idea of how to counter it.

    Long story short, turning around a team doesn’t happen quickly. You’re going to have bright spots when you are moving in the right direction, but there will be low spots as well.




  • Exactly this.

    A lot of people seem to think Managers are 1 size fits all, but there not.

    Mid table is Emery’s playground. He’s great at taking a solid club and getting a bit extra out of them to push the top teams over the season, and do well in cups. However his time at arsenal and PSG show that he’s not able to have that same impact at a higher level.

    To be clear, I know there were other issues not of his doing at Arsenal, and I’m sure his time at PSG had similar issues. However, I think successful managers at that level are able to impose their will on the club and team to get what they want, like Arteta has done. The fact that Emery was overshadowed by the other club issues shows that he’s not at that level.