Obligatory note for all the “Christians should support Israel” crowd. The Israeli minister of Security said, that Christians should be spit on. When Christians want to pray for Easter in the Church of the holy sepulcher, Israeli security forces are also harassing and attacking them. Israel is not only an ethnostate, it is also founded on religious and race supremacy, where white european/american Jews are on the top of the hierarchy and anyone else will face discrimination.
Germany depends on the votes of Spain and Ireland at the EU for a lot of things that Germany finds important.
If a measure at the EU level has enough consensus and Germany vetoes it, they’ll see other members be a lot more likelly to use veto power on things that mostly matter for Germany.
Since Germany are in the curious position of being the EU member that benefits the most from the Free Market (they’re the biggest exporter and their biggest market by far is the rest of the EU) and the Euro (their currency now is a lot weaker and hence they’re more competitive because it’s a currency union with far weaker countries, than it was back in the deutsche mark times), they can’t even threathen to leave the EU as that would a bit like threatenning almost everybody else with a good time whilst they shot themselves on both feet.
Still, the most likely outcome is going to be nothing at all getting done at EU level, either way, if only because that’s always the most likely outcome.
If only Germany would not be willing to recognice Palestine, then this might happen, but that is not the case. France and Italy the two next most powerfull countries do not recognice Palestine either.
Germany is usually fairly happy with the current state of the EU. The things Germany wants to change are usually also supported by Spain and that means blackmail is harder. The only exaption to that is finance. However Spain is not going to let billions go to waste to have Palestine recogniced. That is just more of a symbol, rather then massivly important.
Also Germany leaving the EU would cause some massive problems in other EU countries as well. They would hardly be cheering for it.
It’s unclear were exactly France is on this, though I agree that Italy under the current far-right government is unlikelly to recognize Palestine.
I’m mostly thinking about the Financial stuff: none of the so called PIIGS forgot how they and their populations were sacrificed to save German banks and a “Let’s fuck Germany” posture wouldn’t at all be a hard sell in those countries plus I very much doubt that generally not doing what’s good for Germany would be bad for those countries since they’re almost opposite to Germany in the forms by which their economies can benefit from the Euro - they would actually grow more in an Euro without Germany.
I’m also not so sure that a German exit would end up being bad for the rest of the EU, especially for the less export oriented and more peripheral countries like Spain - certainly an Euro minus Germany would actually be better for everybody else but Germany (as Germany pushes up the value of the Euro, making other Euro nations less competitive and partly explaining their anemic growth and lack of funds to restructure their Economies, which is the other big reason for their anemic growth) though granted it depends on how important are exports to Germany in each economy, though on non-Euro EU matters you might be right. In summary and as I said before, almost nobody else but Germany benefits from Germany’s Euro membership and the kind of nations that would be least affected by a Deutschexit are the ones who have no borders with Germany, a group that includes Spain, Ireland and Norway (though the latter is not an EU member and hence has no vote or veto so doesn’t really apply for the scenario we are discussing).
Spain has grown faster then Germany for most of the last decade(besides 2020). Out of PIIGS Portugal and Ireland also have done pretty well. Greece got hit hard and Italys economy has problems since the 90s(aka not a EU/Euro problem).
their currency now is a lot weaker and hence they’re more competitive because it’s a currency union with far weaker countries, than it was back in the deutsche mark times
That myth again. The Euro is a much harder currency than the DM ever was. Most of the trouble states had with the Euro was not due to Germany but them not being accustomed to having a hard currency in the first place, being used to relying on monetary fuckery to steer the economy.
As to recognising Palestine: Not a EU prerogative, simple as that. And I highly doubt states would pressure Germany over this, it’d be a lot of political capital spent on practically zero impact – up to negative impact as Germany has a much better chance convincing Israel to recognise Palestine with its current stance, and there’s simply no country with deeper diplomatic ties to Israel than Germany. If anyone can convince them, it’s Germany.
Militarily speaking the US is still a force to be reckoned with, they can bitch-slap any smaller non-nuclear country anywhere in the world on a moment’s notice.
Soft power wise, though, the US is in freefall. And without that soft power the hard power can’t be readily employed because blowback. I’d say in the future the US is going to do a lot more riding on the EU’s soft power than they’re currently comfortable admitting. That is, they’re not going to invade random countries to bolster election results at home, they’re going to knock on Brussel’s door and ask “hey anything need peacekeeping right now that would be popular with the world?”, then portray it as their own initiative.
Much as russia just spent their material legacy capacity in ukraine, the us spent their economic legacy capacity in Iraq/Afghanistan. We are driving around a fancy army we spent too much on, and the payments are hurting.
We still spend too much on it. We’re following Germany’s fallacy from World War 2 of trying to have all of our equipment be the bestest ever instead of good enough. Accounting for inflation last time I looked we’re spending twice what we were when we invaded Iraq.
That’s… That’s my point. We won world war 2 with equipment that was great strategically and logistically, but was merely good enough tactically. We’ve switched positions. We need to realize that a million man military can’t be gold plated.
Militarily speaking the US is still a force to be reckoned with
Sure. But so are France, Russia, India, and Pakistan. A lot of the US influence comes from its extensive base network. And yet… America can’t keep the Suez open in the face of some Yemeni rebels with access to a Radio Shack. They’ve bowed out in Afghanistan and Iraq. They’re roughly holding the line in Ukraine by sheer weight of expenditure. Logistically, all very impressive. But its playing ten different chess games at once. Only impressive if you’re not losing them.
I’d say in the future the US is going to do a lot more riding on the EU’s soft power than they’re currently comfortable admitting.
I’m not even sure what the EU looks like in another thirty years. The UK is in steep decline, France is in full sell-out mode, Germany and Italy are making kissy-faces at their fascist wings. The Eastern European states never recovered from the break up of the USSR. Scandinavia is a gas station.
Europe’s chips seem to be stacking up in the Middle East, under a handful of petty dictatorships and theocracies. But the real future power players are looking more and more like the member states of the South Pacific - India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia. Enormous populations, high tech industries, rapidly expanding navies, some of the last pristine wilderness anywhere on earth… These look like the countries which will be leading the world into back end of the 21st century.
We could stop the Yemenis. But it would take far more manpower and material than anyone in the US is willing to commit right now. We could go to the fortress village concept; and just generally go full scale COIN. It would stop the attacks. It would also cost a trillion dollars over a couple years and probably turn into a transitional government and peacekeeping mission.
Enlistment? Shit at the rate we’re getting into fights we’re going to need conscription anyways. Let’s just get it over with. /s
The only reason we have shortages is because they cannibalized an entire generation. Turns out when you keep fighting you go right through the pool of eligible volunteers.
And hey I didn’t say we’d leave a stable state behind. Just that we’d stop the attacks.
And hey I didn’t say we’d leave a stable state behind. Just that we’d stop the attacks.
I mean, it helps to understand the political situation in Yemen up to this point. Its already functionally been in and out of civil war for the last decade. The Houthis currently lobbing bombs into the Gulf of Adan are the same insurgents that Saudi-backed Yemen officials have been fighting with since the Obama Era.
Then you’ve got the other side of the Gulf, where pirate communities across Somalia were already a perpetual nuisance for major shipping. They’ve been raising the insurance rates on this boats well before the Houthis started playing Battleship with merchant vessels. This isn’t a new problem for the US Navy. Its simply a numbers game. Too many ships to protect and too many potential pirating crews to combat.
The cost-efficient solution appears to be to send everyone around the Horn of Africa again, rather than trying your luck in the Canal.
Definitely true, its just the arms companies milking your country dry want more money. So, they’ll convince you all that you’re no longer a super power.
Nations who recognise Palestine:
I miss this kind of confidence I got from cocaine
I always knew Antarctica couldn’t be trusted.
Those penguins are up to something. You can’t trust someone who goes swimming in formal wear…
SLIDE!
Wait! Vatican recognized Palestine?!?
Either way if what Spain said is true and Europe becomes green as well, it would be pretty much US, Australia and Israel to not recognize Palestine
Obligatory note for all the “Christians should support Israel” crowd. The Israeli minister of Security said, that Christians should be spit on. When Christians want to pray for Easter in the Church of the holy sepulcher, Israeli security forces are also harassing and attacking them. Israel is not only an ethnostate, it is also founded on religious and race supremacy, where white european/american Jews are on the top of the hierarchy and anyone else will face discrimination.
Hold on, the 1900s british colony Israel has the same name as the kingdom from the bible and is therefore the same because jews or something.
Anyway, we need it to fulfill prophecies. /s
Gotta have that third temple.
Just gotta find a red heffer that we can burn alive.
The UK too. We love to be on the wrong side of history.
And Canada. We love following the US into its mistakes.
It’s easier to say you’re sorry all the time when you agree with the US.
Unlikely. Germany most likely is not going to recognice Palestine for a long time.
Too busy trying to sort their recycling and make up words for very specific situations. Historically they haven’t cared about genocide.
Germany, Settler Colonialism and Fascism, name a more iconic trio.
UK/France/Spain, Settler Colonialism, and Fascism. Germany literally learned it from watching them do it first.
Well. As soon as Palestine becomes an actual state.
European legislation supersedes German legislation. Germany has to fall in line and implement what Europe tells it.
Foreign policy needs consensus. So the EU can not force Germany to do anything in terms of foreign policy.
Germany depends on the votes of Spain and Ireland at the EU for a lot of things that Germany finds important.
If a measure at the EU level has enough consensus and Germany vetoes it, they’ll see other members be a lot more likelly to use veto power on things that mostly matter for Germany.
Since Germany are in the curious position of being the EU member that benefits the most from the Free Market (they’re the biggest exporter and their biggest market by far is the rest of the EU) and the Euro (their currency now is a lot weaker and hence they’re more competitive because it’s a currency union with far weaker countries, than it was back in the deutsche mark times), they can’t even threathen to leave the EU as that would a bit like threatenning almost everybody else with a good time whilst they shot themselves on both feet.
Still, the most likely outcome is going to be nothing at all getting done at EU level, either way, if only because that’s always the most likely outcome.
If only Germany would not be willing to recognice Palestine, then this might happen, but that is not the case. France and Italy the two next most powerfull countries do not recognice Palestine either.
Germany is usually fairly happy with the current state of the EU. The things Germany wants to change are usually also supported by Spain and that means blackmail is harder. The only exaption to that is finance. However Spain is not going to let billions go to waste to have Palestine recogniced. That is just more of a symbol, rather then massivly important.
Also Germany leaving the EU would cause some massive problems in other EU countries as well. They would hardly be cheering for it.
It’s unclear were exactly France is on this, though I agree that Italy under the current far-right government is unlikelly to recognize Palestine.
I’m mostly thinking about the Financial stuff: none of the so called PIIGS forgot how they and their populations were sacrificed to save German banks and a “Let’s fuck Germany” posture wouldn’t at all be a hard sell in those countries plus I very much doubt that generally not doing what’s good for Germany would be bad for those countries since they’re almost opposite to Germany in the forms by which their economies can benefit from the Euro - they would actually grow more in an Euro without Germany.
I’m also not so sure that a German exit would end up being bad for the rest of the EU, especially for the less export oriented and more peripheral countries like Spain - certainly an Euro minus Germany would actually be better for everybody else but Germany (as Germany pushes up the value of the Euro, making other Euro nations less competitive and partly explaining their anemic growth and lack of funds to restructure their Economies, which is the other big reason for their anemic growth) though granted it depends on how important are exports to Germany in each economy, though on non-Euro EU matters you might be right. In summary and as I said before, almost nobody else but Germany benefits from Germany’s Euro membership and the kind of nations that would be least affected by a Deutschexit are the ones who have no borders with Germany, a group that includes Spain, Ireland and Norway (though the latter is not an EU member and hence has no vote or veto so doesn’t really apply for the scenario we are discussing).
Spain has grown faster then Germany for most of the last decade(besides 2020). Out of PIIGS Portugal and Ireland also have done pretty well. Greece got hit hard and Italys economy has problems since the 90s(aka not a EU/Euro problem).
Also Norway is not an EU member.
That myth again. The Euro is a much harder currency than the DM ever was. Most of the trouble states had with the Euro was not due to Germany but them not being accustomed to having a hard currency in the first place, being used to relying on monetary fuckery to steer the economy.
As to recognising Palestine: Not a EU prerogative, simple as that. And I highly doubt states would pressure Germany over this, it’d be a lot of political capital spent on practically zero impact – up to negative impact as Germany has a much better chance convincing Israel to recognise Palestine with its current stance, and there’s simply no country with deeper diplomatic ties to Israel than Germany. If anyone can convince them, it’s Germany.
Canada does the glance_away.jpg
Have you tried having the worlds only super power ready to liberate the everlasting shit out of anyone who upsets you?
*Super power in electing dumb tv stars as their leader
Is the US even really worth that term anymore? Seems like we’ve lost quite a bit of gas since the 90s.
Militarily speaking the US is still a force to be reckoned with, they can bitch-slap any smaller non-nuclear country anywhere in the world on a moment’s notice.
Soft power wise, though, the US is in freefall. And without that soft power the hard power can’t be readily employed because blowback. I’d say in the future the US is going to do a lot more riding on the EU’s soft power than they’re currently comfortable admitting. That is, they’re not going to invade random countries to bolster election results at home, they’re going to knock on Brussel’s door and ask “hey anything need peacekeeping right now that would be popular with the world?”, then portray it as their own initiative.
Much as russia just spent their material legacy capacity in ukraine, the us spent their economic legacy capacity in Iraq/Afghanistan. We are driving around a fancy army we spent too much on, and the payments are hurting.
We still spend too much on it. We’re following Germany’s fallacy from World War 2 of trying to have all of our equipment be the bestest ever instead of good enough. Accounting for inflation last time I looked we’re spending twice what we were when we invaded Iraq.
There’s no “from WWII” about that we’re still gold-plating equipment.
That’s… That’s my point. We won world war 2 with equipment that was great strategically and logistically, but was merely good enough tactically. We’ve switched positions. We need to realize that a million man military can’t be gold plated.
I mean Germany is still gold-plating things. Also a million men when did you decide to cut the size of your forces in half.
I could go for a few decades of that. We need some humble pie.
Sure. But so are France, Russia, India, and Pakistan. A lot of the US influence comes from its extensive base network. And yet… America can’t keep the Suez open in the face of some Yemeni rebels with access to a Radio Shack. They’ve bowed out in Afghanistan and Iraq. They’re roughly holding the line in Ukraine by sheer weight of expenditure. Logistically, all very impressive. But its playing ten different chess games at once. Only impressive if you’re not losing them.
I’m not even sure what the EU looks like in another thirty years. The UK is in steep decline, France is in full sell-out mode, Germany and Italy are making kissy-faces at their fascist wings. The Eastern European states never recovered from the break up of the USSR. Scandinavia is a gas station.
Europe’s chips seem to be stacking up in the Middle East, under a handful of petty dictatorships and theocracies. But the real future power players are looking more and more like the member states of the South Pacific - India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia. Enormous populations, high tech industries, rapidly expanding navies, some of the last pristine wilderness anywhere on earth… These look like the countries which will be leading the world into back end of the 21st century.
We could stop the Yemenis. But it would take far more manpower and material than anyone in the US is willing to commit right now. We could go to the fortress village concept; and just generally go full scale COIN. It would stop the attacks. It would also cost a trillion dollars over a couple years and probably turn into a transitional government and peacekeeping mission.
The same way we stopped the Iraqis, the Afghanis, and the Vietnamese, sure.
Trying to teach another generation of 19 year olds broken Arabic before throwing them into a literal mine field?
We could try it. But I can’t imagine it would boost enlistment rates
Enlistment? Shit at the rate we’re getting into fights we’re going to need conscription anyways. Let’s just get it over with. /s
The only reason we have shortages is because they cannibalized an entire generation. Turns out when you keep fighting you go right through the pool of eligible volunteers.
And hey I didn’t say we’d leave a stable state behind. Just that we’d stop the attacks.
I mean, it helps to understand the political situation in Yemen up to this point. Its already functionally been in and out of civil war for the last decade. The Houthis currently lobbing bombs into the Gulf of Adan are the same insurgents that Saudi-backed Yemen officials have been fighting with since the Obama Era.
Then you’ve got the other side of the Gulf, where pirate communities across Somalia were already a perpetual nuisance for major shipping. They’ve been raising the insurance rates on this boats well before the Houthis started playing Battleship with merchant vessels. This isn’t a new problem for the US Navy. Its simply a numbers game. Too many ships to protect and too many potential pirating crews to combat.
The cost-efficient solution appears to be to send everyone around the Horn of Africa again, rather than trying your luck in the Canal.
Definitely true, its just the arms companies milking your country dry want more money. So, they’ll convince you all that you’re no longer a super power.
So pissed off at my government for deliberately making us the only Scandinavian country not to 🤬
Cries in US
Fuck this country…